Note from the editor: My apologies to Reed and anyone reading these post weekly. Reed sent the picks in well before the games on Sunday, but life got in the way and I'm just now getting a chance to post the article
My fellow gamblers, good evening. San Diego managed not to blow it in the second half this time, but that didn't matter to us because we were cashing our winning ticket at half time and had pretty much no reason to sweat. Next week the Chargers are playing another great time in the Falcons, so once again San Diego will likely be the underdog, so watch for me to take them in the first half again.
I know I said I'd do some analysis of my teasers, but that's going to wait because there's another key principle to successful sports betting that is instrumental in one of my picks this week. Most of the public will tell you that the Vegas line is their prediction of what the final score will be in the game. If New York is favored by three, then Vegas thinks they will win by three. That's close, but not quite right. The Vegas line is a prediction of what the public thinks the final score will be. Allow me to go into a little more detail.
Most lines pay -110, so in a perfect world for bookies there will be 50% of the money bet on each side. This allows Vegas to pay the winners with the losers and keep that extra piece from the -10. It feels weird to think about, but Vegas doesn't want to gamble. They want the sure thing with the 50/50 split. So public perception of teams is key to understanding why a line is what it is, and if you have reason to believe public perception is wrong, we can use that to exploit a line in certain circumstances. I'll explain how in my first pick. I'm excited to get to the picks because I love the card this week.
Season Record: Overall (15-11) Spread (9-7) Total (2-2) Teaser (4-2)
My fellow gamblers, good evening. Another iffy week along with more political prop bet wins. So far I'm 3-2 on the debate bets netting a small profit. That's nice because it made up for once again buying into a short road favorite in the Eagles and placing my bet so early that Denver's QB still had a bit of a question mark.
I also said everyone can say 'I told you so' if my non-standard teaser didn't work. I guess that's one way to prove why that rule is in place. Today, we're going to do another first. This will be my first 'first half' bet. Quite simply, a first half bet is a bet that only applies to the score at the end of the first half, and Thursday night we have an excellent opportunity to exploit this option.
Season Record: Overall (14-11) Spread (8-6) Total (2-2) Teaser (4-2)
My fellow gamblers, good evening. That Thursday night game was exactly as strange as I thought it might be. No points were scored in the first quarter and yet the over still managed to come in. That's why I wouldn't make an official pick and I'm glad I didn't. There's a gambling concept that my time at the poker table taught me well. You can't just maximize the wins, you have to minimize the losses as well in order to make money. You can't just win the big pots you also have to avoid losing the big pots. If you win $20 or you avoid losing $20, that's still $20 going in the correct column, and having the patience to pass on a game is vital to long term sports betting success.
Season Record: Overall (12-8) Spread (7-5) Total (2-2) Teaser (3-1
My fellow gamblers, good evening. Last Thursday I lamented the poor twist of fate that snatched the UCLA/Stanford cover away from me at the last moment. Last Sunday I told you to bet on the Browns because they weren't really as bad as people said they were.
If you were watching the game you saw a perplexing play which stopped the Browns in their tracks right as they were driving to score again to give us the cover and has received a little media coverage since. If you haven't seen you can see it live along with a reaction that nicely sums up my own here: https://twitter.com/sportcllps/status/782724976231284737
My fellow gamblers, good evening. It felt good to get that Thursday night win for two reasons: winning feels good, especially after last week, and now I've got even more reason to watch the early start time of the Colts/Jags game in London tomorrow. I'm still not convinced the best way to grow the game of football is to show Europe the Jaguars every year, but it's not like Roger Goodell's judgement has ever been in doubt before...
Season Record: Overall (9-6) Spread (5-4) Total (2-1) Teaser (2-1)
Welcome! My name is Chris Spooner. I am an overly-passionate Dolphins fan who has many opinions about his team, and the sports landscape as a whole. I hope you enjoy reading them as much as I enjoy voicing them.