My fellow gamblers, good evening. It continues to be a great year for me, but not just for me. The sportsbooks are taking an absolute beating this year. This is largely coming from two factors. The best teams (NE, DAL, and KC) are covering machines while the worst teams (SF, CLE, and STL) are not pulling off anything. Those two bets are the two that the public favors the most, and when they're winning, Vegas is losing. That's also the type of winning that is fleeting. If you've been paying attention to my picks, you've noticed I don't just go against the bad teams or with the good teams. So yes, in general this has been a great NFL season for the gamblers, but at the very least I'm trying to tell myself that's not the only reason I'm sitting with a 63% winrate.
Season Record: Overall (47-27-2) Spread (28-13-2) Total (8-5) Teaser (11-9)
Last four weeks(15-7-1) - Four straight weeks picking at or above 60%
One thing that is awesome about teasers is when the line is in jeopardy, but you're safe. Having Oakland(+9) during the final drive on Thursday night made it quite a relaxing affair while people who bet the spread were biting their finger nails to the nubs when Oakland crossed into Chiefs territory. It's been nice hitting my teasers again. In the past they've always been a strength of mine and it's good to return to form there.
Season Record: Overall (43-25-2) Spread (25-13-2) Total (8-4) Teaser (10-8) Last three weeks(11-5-1)
My fellow gamblers, good evening. Two weeks in a row now the Monday night game has gotten me. Nortmally it's considered the 'get right' game for people losing money on Sunday. For me it's turning into the 'lower yourself to another 60% week'. Although if I have to suffer through a win rate of 60% for the rest of my gambling career, somehow I'll manage.
Season Record: Overall (43-25-2) Spread (25-13-2) Total (8-4) Teaser (10-8) Last two weeks(11-5-1)
My fellow gamblers, good evening. I'm happy that I can at least occasionally sidestep the perils and pitfalls that Vegas lays out for the casual better. I knew the Cowboy line was too low. I can't take too much credit after all since I didn't have the nerve to bet the Vikings, but as I've said before, gambling is as much about winning money as it is avoiding losing money. We move on to the rest of Week 13 to see how lucky we can continue to be.
Season Record: Overall (40-23-2) Spread (23-12-2) Total (8-3) Teaser (9-8)
Last two weeks(8-3-1)
My fellow gamblers, good evening. I'm loving the 8-3-1 streak that we're on over the last two weeks. I have every plan to keep making bookies sorry they're taking our action, but first some analysis that I've been promising for a while. I did a mini tutorial on teaser bets at the start of the year, so let's break down how mine have been doing. I always encourage people who take gambling seriously to keep careful track of which bets of theirs are winning money and to do critical self reflection so they can decide whether they're investing their money wisely. If you think I take NFL numbers seriously, you should see my spreadsheet setup for my poker earnings.
I'm going to go week by week and list how the teaser did and then how the included games would have gone if I'd just bet them straight up.
Week 1: (1-0) (1-1)
Week 2: (0-1) (1-1)
Week 3: (1-0) (2-0)
Week 4: (1-0) (2-0)
Week 5: (1-1) (3-1)
Week 6: (0-2) (2-2)
Week 7: (1-0) (1-1)
Week 8: (0-1) (1-1)
Week 9: (0-1) (1-1)
Week 10: (0-1) (1-1)
Week 11: (1-1) (1-3)
Week 12: (3-0) (2-4)
Final:(9-8 52.9%) (18-16 52.9%)
Well, as it turns out the win percentages either way are exactly even. That's not the result I was expecting. I'll update these numbers again at the end of the season, but for now, let's talk about tonight.
Welcome! My name is Chris Spooner. I am an overly-passionate Dolphins fan who has many opinions about his team, and the sports landscape as a whole. I hope you enjoy reading them as much as I enjoy voicing them.