My fellow gamblers, good evening. Thursday night demonstrates why you don't bet against Belichick at home. I have it on good authority they're going to select a random fan to start next week. It might even be from the opposing team's fan base, and I'll still be taking the Patriots against the spread. Even though we won that bet, we still don't get paid unless Sunday night comes through for us as well. I do have a few other plays for tomorrow and some special action for Monday.
Season Record: Overall (7-3) Spread (5-1) Total (1-1) Teaser (1-1)
Pending Teaser NWE(+7.5)/DAL(-1) - I still like this bet. Chicago will be starting Hoyer “The Destroyer”, but the Bears defense already showed Prescott how easy it is for a rookie QB to put up impressive numbers.
MIN/CAR u42 - Minnesota's defense proved it still has teeth against Green Bay, and they will be tested playing at Carolina, but if the Packers can only put up 65 yards in the first half I do think the Panthers will struggle. Meanwhile, with Peterson out and Bradford playing without the emotion of opening a new stadium, I have a tough time seeing the Vikings offense getting into a rhythm. Last year, Minnesota's games went under at a near 75% rate and I think this one will follow that trend.
SF(+9) - I know the 49ers didn't look great at Carolina last week, but you had a lot of factors there that don't apply here. Now the 49ers aren't on a short week, they aren't traveling east in an early time slot, and they're not playing an efficient offense. The Seahawks issues remain though. They lost to the Rams, but more so they're still without Wilson. Week 1 Seattle only scored 12, last week they only scored 3, and now I'm supposed to believe they can cover 9? I don't see it.
ARI(-4) - This game terrifies me. I came extremely close to making it my 'Don't Touch' game. This is the most heavily bet game of the week and the public is massively on this side. It's not hard to see why though. Buffalo has a ton of problems that firing their offensive coordinator isn't going to fix. Arizona really woke up last week and dominated the Bucs in every phase of the game, and after watching Thursday, I'm not really going to hold the Patriots loss against them. It seems like Arizona should be able to win this one by a touchdown easily, but the amount of public bets on this still makes me concerned. I'm going to bet it, but if you wanted to avoid it, I wouldn't blame you.
MIA(-9) - As I mentioned with Arizona, suddenly Miami's loss in New England looks pretty good. The Dolphins now get to play their first game at home on the season, and they're hosting the Browns. If Miami can put up 24 at New England, I think they can cover 9 against the Browns. Cleveland started hot last week at home, but then remembered they were Cleveland and didn't score after the first quarter while giving up 25 unanswered points. I see the fish (even though they're mammals) winning big here.
Don't Touch BAL/JAX - I don't think we know enough about either of these teams or who they've played. I don't trust Baltimore on the road considering they managed to give up 20 to Cleveland in the first quarter. Yes they came back, but still, it was against Cleveland. Jacksonville looked decent against Green Bay, who might be bad, but then awful at San Diego. Now they play at home and I just think it's too easy to make an argument for either side here
Monday - Instead of betting the NFL (I wouldn't bet ATL/NO anyway that matchup is always volatile), there's going to be a more watched event. Yes, there are prop bets for the first presidential debate. You can see all of them here: https://sports.bovada.lv/politics
Picking out a couple underdogs I like:
Will Clinton say 'deplorable' - I'm going 'yes' for +135. I don't think she'll want to, but Trump will bring it up at some point and force Clinton to respond.
Will Trump say 'Crooked Hillary' - I'm going 'no' for +125. That insult is remnant from Trump's previous campaign manager and he hasn't used it nearly as heavily since switching from Manafort to Conway.
Welcome! My name is Chris Spooner. I am an overly-passionate Dolphins fan who has many opinions about his team, and the sports landscape as a whole. I hope you enjoy reading them as much as I enjoy voicing them.