NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Gambling Picks

My fellow gamblers, good evening. When I took up the position of Gambler in Residence here at A Spoonful of Sports it was after a 5-0 opening week. Although it gave me great confidence, I've been around gambling long enough to know how unsustainable such a record is. I started to come back down to Earth over the next couple weeks, but then I had my 7-2 week, and now I have a 4-1-1 week. Somehow I'm still over 60% on the season which no one in the famed West Gate Super Contest can say. I obviously hope this keeps going and that my new analytics methods hold, but more so, I hope you're out there making money off these picks.

​Season Record: Overall (36-21-2) Spread (22-11-2) Total (8-2) Teaser (6-8)

For the last four years I've had a tradition of betting all three Thanksgiving games. I remember because it was the year of the Butt Fumble. This year is special because for the first time since 1993, all teams playing are at or above a .500 record. Unfortunately I can't bet the PIT/IND game because the Luck injury has it down off the board with my book. I'll still settle for a teaser with the remaining two. Just like last week though, I'll remind everyone to look at my teaser record compared to my other numbers before tailing here.
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MIN(+9)/DAL(-1) -  I'm using much of the same reasoning I did last week. Detroit still hasn't won a game by more than a touchdown and it was only a field goal with 26 seconds last week against the Jags in Detroit that caused that bet of mine to push. Minnesota looked better at Washington last week, but on the road against divisional rivals tends to be a turducken of a different color. The last road game the Redskins won was October 9th. Since then they've had four home games and a road loss to the Lions. Dallas just keeps winning. They looked iffy early against the Ravens last week, but just like the week before against the Steelers, picking against them was a popular contrarian pick. Both times though, a dominant second half cashed tickets for Cowboy backers and I'm going to keep riding that side until they can't quite pull off a comeback.