NFL Week 13 Thursday Gambling Picks

My fellow gamblers, good evening. I'm loving the 8-3-1 streak that we're on over the last two weeks. I have every plan to keep making bookies sorry they're taking our action, but first some analysis that I've been promising for a while. I did a mini tutorial on teaser bets at the start of the year, so let's break down how mine have been doing. I always encourage people who take gambling seriously to keep careful track of which bets of theirs are winning money and to do critical self reflection so they can decide whether they're investing their money wisely. If you think I take NFL numbers seriously, you should see my spreadsheet setup for my poker earnings.

I'm going to go week by week and list how the teaser did and then how the included games would have gone if I'd just bet them straight up.

              Teaser            Spread
Week 1: (1-0)                (1-1)
Week 2: (0-1)               (1-1)
Week 3: (1-0)               (2-0)
Week 4: (1-0)               (2-0)
Week 5: (1-1)                (3-1)
Week 6: (0-2)              (2-2)
Week 7: (1-0)               (1-1)
Week 8: (0-1)               (1-1)
Week 9: (0-1)               (1-1)
Week 10: (0-1)              (1-1)
Week 11: (1-1)                (1-3)
Week 12: (3-0)             (2-4)
Final:(9-8 52.9%)          (18-16 52.9%)

Well, as it turns out the win percentages either way are exactly even. That's not the result I was expecting. I'll update these numbers again at the end of the season, but for now, let's talk about tonight.

Season Record: Overall (40-23-2) Spread (23-12-2) Total (8-3) Teaser (9-8)​
Last two weeks(8-3-1)

No bet for me on this one. This line stinks worse than my dog's farts. Cowboys have been a covering machine and the Vikings have gone 1-6 over their last 7. Vikings might also be without their defensive guru of a head coach due to emergency eye surgery. Somehow this line is still this low. If this line were DAL(-6.5) I'd actually be more inclined to take it. As it stands though, this screams trap. If this line creeps up to -4.5 I might take MIN(+10.5) in a teaser. But for now I'm staying well away.