Week 4 Picks

My fellow gamblers, good evening. It felt good to get that Thursday night win for two reasons: winning feels good, especially after last week, and now I've got even more reason to watch the early start time of the Colts/Jags game in London tomorrow. I'm still not convinced the best way to grow the game of football is to show Europe the Jaguars every year, but it's not like Roger Goodell's judgement has ever been in doubt before...

Season Record: Overall (9-6) Spread (5-4) Total (2-1) Teaser (2-1)

Pending teaser CIN(-1.5)/JAX(+9) - I still like Jacksonville here. I don't think the Colts can beat a team by double digits no matter the continent they're on.

CLE(+7.5) - Bet on the Browns? Really? Yes. I watched nearly every snap of the Miami/Cleveland game last week. Cleveland managed to force overtime despite missing 3 field goals in regulation time. If they hit just one of those field goals and aren't the winless Browns anymore then I think this line is more likely to be WAS(-6) or WAS(-6.5). Don't forget Washington is a 1-2 team in their own right. I think Washington will still win, but I think the public perception of the Browns overstates just how bad they are.

MIN(-4.5) - Please note, I'm a huge Vikings fan, so read this recommendation with that in mind. Eli Manning has played the Vikings 8 times in his career. In those games he has 5 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Of those 13 interceptions, 5 of them have been pick-sixes. That means he's thrown as many touchdowns for the Vikings as he has for his own team. The Vikings are playing for the second time in their new stadium which is going to be rocking after the state has been electrified with back-to-back big wins. The Giants also had several of their wide receivers playing defensive back in practice because of how banged up their secondary is. A practice squad player is starting at corner for them this week. Minnesota's offense is average at best, but if Minnesota manages to get 17 points, that'll cover -4.5 with how the purple people eaters have returned.

HOU(-5) - I think the public is going to overreact to two things, JJ Watt's injury and the Patriots game. Houston has had a long week to listen to everyone write them off, but I think that game was less about Houston and more about Belichick splitting his own soul into another piece. This game is also at home where the Texans have looked good beating the Bears and Chiefs. Tennessee should be 0-3 if not for a lucky 4th down conversion in Detroit. I think Houston wins this by double digits.
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SD/NO u54 - This is purely a bet on Drew Brees not being Drew Brees when he plays outdoors. Yes, it's warm San Diego, but the weather in New York was nice and toasty when New Orleans played there two weeks ago and managed only 13 points. He's just not the same QB out of the dome and I'm not convinced his team will be able to do their part to get this number so high.