Week 5 Picks

My fellow gamblers, good evening. That Thursday night game was exactly as strange as I thought it might be. No points were scored in the first quarter and yet the over still managed to come in. That's why I wouldn't make an official pick and I'm glad I didn't. There's a gambling concept that my time at the poker table taught me well. You can't just maximize the wins, you have to minimize the losses as well in order to make money. You can't just win the big pots you also have to avoid losing the big pots. If you win $20 or you avoid losing $20, that's still $20 going in the correct column, and having the patience to pass on a game is vital to long term sports betting success.
 
Season Record: Overall (12-8) Spread (7-5) Total (2-2) Teaser (3-1

,Phi(-3) - These teams have a common game. Detroit lost by three at Chicago and Philadelphia won by 15 at Chicago. The early bye week for Philadelphia has put their dominance of the Steelers too far back in people's minds otherwise this line would be -6, at least. Take the short road favorite while it's still at (-3) because by kickoff the number won't be this good.
 
DEN(-6) - Atlanta's offense has really started clicking the last couple weeks, but Denver's defense hasn't stopped clicking since early last season. We see these matches frequently between top ranked offenses and top ranked defenses. You could even argue that's what the last Super Bowl was. Even though Atlanta's and Carolina's offenses are quite different, traditionally the top ranked defense is the team that prevails. Add in this game being in Denver and I'll take the Broncos to win by a touchdown.
 
SD(+4) - As strange as it sounds, the Raiders are becoming a public team. Although they have managed to start 3-1, two of those wins have been by only one point. Meanwhile San Diego is 1-3, but two of their losses have been by 4 points or less. Both of these teams have been playing close games all season, so I'll happily take a four point buffer.
 
PIT(-1.5)/MIN(-1) - My standard 'home teams that are favored by a touchdown' teaser. I still don't trust Minnesota's offense to score enough to cover 7 regularly, but they can beat a Watt-less Texans in that new, loud US Bank stadium.

Pittsburgh's dominance of the Chiefs was one of the biggest surprises to me last week. I hate seeing a game at (-7.5) though. That hook seems to catch me too often, but a teased line should be quite coverable against a Jets team which seems intent on breaking the single season interception mark.
 
TEN(+9.5)/CIN(+4.5) - My non-standard teaser. The Titans/Dolphins game will likely be played in Florida despite Hurricane Matthew, but the crowd is going to be too nervous about whether or not they still have homes to really be into it. If this was the first game back in the stadium after the storm had passed I'd bet on the Dolphins, but the state is still going to be getting rain from the storm during the game and, in all honesty, I'm not certain Tannehill can beat the Titans by double digits even in optimal circumstances.

​The Bengals game I'm definitely violating the rule of 'never tease through zero' and if I lose because of that, then everyone gets to say, "I told you so!" but I think this Cowboys team has an inflated record thanks to playing the Bears, the Redskins, and the 49ers the last three weeks. So even though traditional teaser rules would say DAL(+7.5), CIN(+4.5) is what I'll go with since I think this game is either a late field goal for the Cowboys, if they are legit, or a double digit win by the Bengals if they aren't.
 
Last Presidential Debate I gave you some props that made money, so since we have a little in the bank from that, here are some I'm playing this Sunday.
 
Times 'China' is said u9.5(-130) - The first debate had twelve mentions, but this is a town hall format, and I don't see that many questions where this could be the answer. Clinton also rarely uses the word, it's almost purely Trump and I don't see him managing double digit mentions in one question.
 
Will Trump say 'Huge'? Yes(-250) - I can't believe the odds are this good here. Yes -250 is a fair amount, but he said it at the first debate and he tends to say it more in off the cuff moments like we'll have Sunday.
 
Will Trump say 'Build a wall' or 'Build the wall'? No(+150) - My underdog pick here. The wall wasn't mentioned a single time in the first debate, so I'm gambling that no one will have a direct question on the wall since Trump managed to talk about immigration plenty without bringing it up the first time.
 
In case you're wondering why I had no props for the VP debate, it's because there weren't any. I know, I was disappointed too.