Week 5 Preview

My fellow gamblers, good evening. Last Thursday I lamented the poor twist of fate that snatched the UCLA/Stanford cover away from me at the last moment. Last Sunday I told you to bet on the Browns because they weren't really as bad as people said they were.
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If you were watching the game you saw a perplexing play which stopped the Browns in their tracks right as they were driving to score again to give us the cover and has received a little media coverage since. If you haven't seen you can see it live along with a reaction that nicely sums up my own here: https://twitter.com/sportcllps/status/782724976231284737

It's important to point out at this point that I absolutely don't think Vegas is rigging the NFL. Especially the Cleveland game, there was way more money placed on Washington, so Vegas lost along with me. In both of the losses I've pointed out above, the favorite covered which is usually bad for Vegas. It's easy to take some tough losses and blame forces outside your control.

The real danger there is not reflecting on why you made those decisions and if you used bad criteria. For example I could look at the fact that two weeks in a row I've lost money betting on the Browns, so this week I won't touch the CLE/NE game because it seems likely something with my evaluation with them is off. When we gamble we walk a fine line as it is, and blaming others for our losses is one step down the road to hiding our habit, turning a fun hobby into something more destructive.

Season Record: Overall (12-8) Spread (7-5) Total (2-2) Teaser (3-1)

It seems fitting following my intro paragraph here, but I'm not picking the Thursday night game. I've done quite well with the teasers the last couple weeks, but these teams both seem like unknowns to me, especially with Palmer now being listed as injured. It wouldn't surprise me to have either one win by 20 or by a 1. If you just want a little action to make watching it more interesting.
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I would tease the home team again here and do SF(+9.5) combined with PIT(-1.5). I'm not making that an official pick, but since it's something we'll likely all be watching that's the way I'd lean. There are definitely some great games this Sunday though, so check back Saturday for a full slate of picks.