Week 6 Picks

Note from the editor: My apologies to Reed and anyone reading these post weekly. Reed sent the picks in well before the games on Sunday, but life got in the way and I'm just now getting a chance to post the article

My fellow gamblers, good evening. San Diego managed not to blow it in the second half this time, but that didn't matter to us because we were cashing our winning ticket at half time and had pretty much no reason to sweat. Next week the Chargers are playing another great time in the Falcons, so once again San Diego will likely be the underdog, so watch for me to take them in the first half again.

I know I said I'd do some analysis of my teasers, but that's going to wait because there's another key principle to successful sports betting that is instrumental in one of my picks this week. Most of the public will tell you that the Vegas line is their prediction of what the final score will be in the game. If New York is favored by three, then Vegas thinks they will win by three. That's close, but not quite right. The Vegas line is a prediction of what the public thinks the final score will be. Allow me to go into a little more detail.

Most lines pay -110, so in a perfect world for bookies there will be 50% of the money bet on each side. This allows Vegas to pay the winners with the losers and keep that extra piece from the -10. It feels weird to think about, but Vegas doesn't want to gamble. They want the sure thing with the 50/50 split. So public perception of teams is key to understanding why a line is what it is, and if you have reason to believe public perception is wrong, we can use that to exploit a line in certain circumstances. I'll explain how in my first pick. I'm excited to get to the picks because I love the card this week.
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Season Record: Overall (15-11) Spread (9-7) Total (2-2) Teaser (4-2)

NYG(-3) - Baltimore started 3-0, but barely squeaked by the Bills(before they got an offense), the Browns, and the Jaguars. Now they've dropped back to back home games against Oakland and Washington. New York has lost two weeks in a row in prime time, everyone watched these games so I think the public is really underestimating how good this team is. They're definitely in the same class as Oakland and Washington plus the game is being played in New York. I again want to emphasize the two public losses though. Twice the underdog and twice failed to cover. Vegas can set this line low and people are going to jump on the Ravens. Take the underrated home team laying the points.

WAS(+3) - Speaking of Washington hear they host a Phili team coming off their first loss of the season. Now we have the Eagles with the same line they had against Detroit. So I have to ask myself if the Redskins are a better team than the Lions are. Turns out they're about the same. Detroit is scoring 23.8 ppg. Washington is scoring 23 ppg. Detroit is allowing 25ppg. Washington is allowing 24.4 ppg. Add in the fact that this is a division rivalry game with the home team getting points? I'll take it.

ATL(+6) - Atlanta really impressed me by going into Denver and putting up a touchdown victory. That Falcons offense is for real and is by far the best offense Seattle has faced this season. All of their opponents so far are in the bottom half of the league in offensive production and Atlanta is averaging nearly two touchdowns more per game than anyone else they've played. I think Atlanta could win this outright, but if I'm getting +6, I'll settle for that.

PIT(-2)/BUF(-2) - I'm going to keep picking against Miami until they prove I shouldn't(Sorry Spooner). Pittsburgh's only stumble has been against the Eagles and although a road favorite of more than a touchdown isn't something I like, making them part of a teaser when I'm moving past 3,4,6, and 7 sounds great to me. Buffalo's offense has really found its stride since changing coordinators and I expect them to continue playing well against a 49ers team putting Kaepernick back in the rotation. The San Francisco offense might get a jump start as well, so again I'm uncomfortable with -8, but when I get all four key numbers with the home team, I can't resist the tease.
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JAX(+8.5)/(OAK(+7.5) - The Bears only win was three points over the Lions. The Jaguars have had a bye week to travel back to America and savor getting their first win of the season against the Colts. Neither of these teams are great, so give me a nice big number and here's hoping the Jaguars manage to get a winning streak, but even if they don't I don't see Chicago having the offense to make this a double digit win. Oakland's only loss on the season has been to Atlanta, which looked iffy at the time, but now playing the Falcons to just a touchdown seems pretty good. This game is in Kansas City though, which has shown flashes of brilliance especially at home where they're 2-0 on the year. They might win the game, but if Oakland can keep Atlanta to just a seven point win, they can do the same to Kansas City.