Week 7 Picks

My fellow gamblers, good evening. Aside from a brief burst of scoring at the start of the second half, the under outcome was never in doubt. Although I'd never wish injury on anyone, there is a certain comfort in watching a QB get taken to the sidelines when you're looking for a low score. I do wish Hoyer a quick recovery, as Hoyer the Destroyer is my favorite nickname in the NFL ever since BenJarvus Green-Ellis, AKA The Law Firm, retired.

I know I keep talking about doing an analysis of my teasers so far, but that'll have to wait until I'm not typing this up late on a Saturday while the Cubs look like they're on their way to the World Series. Plus, the more weeks that go by, the more data I have to see if my teasers are worth it so far. First, week seven predictions and analysis.
​
Season Record: Overall (19-13) Spread (12-7) Total (3-2) Teaser (4-4)

LA(+9)/PHI(+9) - We start by going across the pond again. My LA pick is really more of an anti NYG pick. I know I was correctly backing them last week, but that was more of a bet based on public perception of the Ravens and the Giants. This one is based on the idea that in the Giants three wins, they had a combined score differential of +8. When all of their wins combined is still under a teased line, I'll take.
​
Throw in the travel to London and the distractions all week with having to figure out what to do with the latest NFL player to not understand that beating your wife is a bad idea. Philadelphia is coming off back to back losses, but both of those were on the road. Minnesota has certainly looked good with the best start in the league, and they may win this game, but don't forget how the Eagles handled the Steelers at Lincoln Financial. This team isn't as bad as they've looked the last two weeks and I expect this to be a one score game.

KC(-6) - The Chiefs really showed me something last week against Oakland. That being over a two touchdown game really caught me off guard and I see a lot of similarities between that Raiders team last week and the Saints team this week. Both have strong offenses with porous defenses. If Kansas City can beat up Oakland in Oakland, then they should be able to cover -6 in Kansas City.

SD 1st Half(+3.5) - I gave you all the numbers last week about San Diego's first half point differential and how they don't deserve the record they have. They managed to beat Denver, but are still underdogs and had a long week to prepare for Atlanta. This might be a bet I ride until it loses. The Falcons are a good squad and definitely got screwed on the lack of a defensive PI call last week, so could very well be hungry for some revenge. As far as the first half goes though, it's where the Chargers have been living and it's where I hope to keep making money.

HOU/DEN u40.5 - Sunday night you might have stayed up to watch the Colts completely blow it against the Houston Texans. I feel bad for anyone who had the under in the game. Fourteen points in the final three minutes is not fun to watch in that scenario. It should be noted though, that up until that point the Colts defense completely held the Texans in check. As a reminder, that Colts defense is bottom five in the league, allowing 29 points per game.

If even against them, the Texans struggled, how are they going to do against a top ten defensive unit like Denver that has said ahead of time that they're going to be going hard at their former QB. A Denver game hasn't broken 40 points in three weeks and Denver's own point total has been decreasing for the last four weeks. Siemian will be back for the Broncos, but I still expect a great deal of running from both teams as we get a low scoring Monday night week 7 finale.