Week 8 Slate

My fellow gamblers, good evening. Did you watch Thursday? Did you watch what happens when someone brags about their record and then thinks they're fancy enough to predict the Jaguars being a real football team? Such is life. It's been a while since we've moved to the Sunday slate down a game, but I have confidence we can still pull out another winning week. I have quite a bit I like this week, so let's get to it.

Season Record: Overall (21-15-1) Spread (12-8-1) Total (4-2) Teaser (5-5)

​KC(-3) - I told you to take this line early in the week and much to my surprise, it's still at (-3). As I mentioned, I've really been impressed with the Chiefs the last two weeks, especially the road win at Oakland. That blowout at Pittsburgh really seems to have kicked the Chiefs into gear and I expect them to keep it rolling against an Indianapolis team whose toughest opponent by record over the last four games is the Houston Texans. Even with such a cupcake schedule they could only manage two wins. They won't get a third against Kansas City.
 
NYJ/CLE o44 - I know what you're saying. These two teams together couldn't beat Keanu Reeves team from The Replacements, how are they supposed to put up 45 or more? Let's break it down. Cleveland's last six games have all gone 45 or more. New York has only had two games under 40 points all season. Yes these two teams are awful, but in their attempts to out awful each other, I expect a fair number of points to accidentally get scored.
 
OAK(-1) - Tampa has won two in a row, but that's against San Francisco and Carolina. They take a huge step up in competition this week with Oakland. You could definitely make the argument that Oakland's last five games, where they've gone 4-1, has not been against the cream of the crop, but I'd counter by saying they're undefeated on the road this year and that's hard no matter who you're playing.
 
GB(+3) - Despite all the talk of Rodgers having a down year, they're still 5-2 with the only two losses being against division leaders. That game last week against Chicago looked like a game where they got lots of things clicking and since it was a Thursday game they got kind of a mini bi week to prep. All that said, I'm not really sure what to make of this Falcons team, they seem to have some great wins and some awful losses. This game reads as very 50/50 to me and in a situation like that, I'm happy to take anything over a field goal.
 
DAL(-5) - This is purely a bet against the Eagles on the road. This year they're 1-2 on the road beating Chicago but losing to Detroit and Washington. The Eagles overall scoring offense is 9th in league, but their road passing is 28th. Their overall scoring defense is 2nd, but their road rushing is 22nd. This team has great wins against Pittsburgh and Minnesota, but those were at home. This Dallas team has won five straight with the last four all having winning margins of a touchdown or more. This is a divisional game, so I don't expect Dallas to run away with it, but I do expect them to win by 7-10.
 
BUF(+7) - You can still find (+7) in some shops although in other places it's dropping. I'd still take it at (+6), but anything below that and I'd pass. Almost any time I'm offered a divisional home underdog of a touchdown or more, I'm going to take them. The road teams just don't come in and crush rivals that play each other too often and have too good a feel for each other to allow that. On top of that I get a Buffalo team who has really surprised me by jump starting their offense since getting a new coordinator and one of those wins was against a Bradyless but still Belichickful Patriots team. Will those two make me hate myself for sticking with the home division dog rule? If anyone can do it, it's them, but for now give me the 7.
 
MIN/CHI u40.5 - I finish my largest card of games for the year on Monday night. This is another road division underdog, but most lines are still Minnesota(-6) which doesn't quite trigger the rule. I am happy to take the under though. Minnesota's offense is currently ranked last in the league in yards per rush and I think Bradford really had a 'come back to Earth' game last week. I took the under last week with the Bears with the reasoning that the Bears aren't going to put up more than 17, even with Cutler back, so can Minnesota score 24? Well they've only done that once all season and that was week one when they put up 25. Only two of the Vikings games all year have broken 40, and I don't think that number changes.